The AIADMK faces an imminent split following electoral defeats, with its 47 MLAs divided between Edappadi K. Palaniswami and a dissident faction led by C.Ve. Shanmugam and S.P. Velumani. The dissident group reportedly has more support and backs the TVK government, with Chief Minister Vijay showing his sympathies ahead of a trust vote. Palaniswami's camp asserts his leadership, citing legislator consent and a Supreme Court ruling, and may seek to disqualify rebels. The Shanmugam-Velumani faction might merge with TVK if they secure 32 legislators. The Assembly Speaker faces the complex task of assessing these claims amid ongoing political upheaval.