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Are election polls being exploited to turn a profit on prediction markets? It’s a danger to democracy

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket face severe manipulation risks from fake polls, undermining electoral democracy. A recent incident involving Median Strategies creating fabricated polling data for the LA mayoral race highlights this danger. Despite claims of no financial gain, the fake poll influenced candidate odds and spread misinformation, exploiting existing public distrust in elections. Election officials warn that such practices erode confidence, especially as many voters misinterpret market odds as legitimate election indicators. This manipulative potential, coupled with the decline in traditional polling credibility, poses a significant threat to the integrity of future elections and public perception, leaving the democratic process vulnerable.

LiveMint · mint · Aug 21, 2026 at 8:51 AM

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