India's inflation is troubling: wholesale prices rose 9.9% in June, retail hit a 17-month high of 4.4%. This stems from West Asia conflict disruptions and rainfall impacting food and energy supplies. Mineral oil costs surged from the Strait of Hormuz. Retail inflation now exceeds the RBI's 4% target and could rise further. RBI already revised its 2026-27 inflation projection to 5.1%. If US-Iran hostilities intensify, pushing inflation near the 6% tolerance limit, RBI may need to re-examine its policy stance.