Climate change is causing structural shifts in India’s inflation dynamics—forecasting must adapt
India's monetary policy framework struggles to address climate-induced inflation, a growing risk that could significantly impact prices, especially food. While the RBI acknowledges climate risks and has developed data systems like RB-CRIS, its current Flexible Inflation Targeting framework cannot effectively differentiate climate-driven from demand-driven shocks. This necessitates evolving the framework to integrate climate data quantitatively into inflation forecasting models. Global examples from ECB, BoE, and RBA offer valuable insights. India must leverage its new climate data infrastructure to provide tangible forecasts for policymakers, strengthening its response to persistent climate shocks before they undermine economic stability.
LiveMint · Abhinav Jindal, Vaibhavi Singh · Jul 20, 2026 at 11:45 AM