Polymarket, a prediction betting service, faces European bans and US legal challenges due to its resemblance to unregulated gambling. Regulators cite risks like addiction, market manipulation (e.g., alleged weather sensor tampering in France), and consumer harm. Polymarket aims to convince financial supervisors it's a derivatives market, like its US setup. However, the author argues that similar binary options are already deemed too risky for retail investors. The text highlights concerns about sports bets, which dominate activity, not fitting financial supervision, and potential for corruption in "racy" trades. The author concludes that Polymarket still looks more like gambling than investing, cautioning against rushing regulatory approval.