The global economy exhibits unexpected resilience despite tariffs, wars, high oil prices, largely due to a positive AI investment supply shock. Market discipline, trade adjustments, and policy responses also mitigated adverse impacts. However, significant tail risks persist, including escalating geopolitical tensions, political dysfunction, and the potential for the AI boom to be a speculative bubble, which could trigger market corrections and stagflation. While a positive outlook remains more likely, sustained global resilience hinges on political leaders avoiding extreme policies. The future depends on navigating these complex risks effectively.