Critical
Do the GDP overestimation claims of India’s former CEA stand up to statistical scrutiny? Look closely
The article critically examines two papers by Subramanian et al. (2019, 2026) alleging Indian GDP overestimation. The author argues that the 2026 paper discards earlier evidence, replacing it with new, flawed methodologies. Key issues include reversed indicator correlations from the 2019 paper, problematic deflator use, and mismatched survey comparisons for the informal sector. The author highlights statistically insignificant findings and contradictory positions between the papers. Ultimately, the review concludes that the 2026 paper appears to be "a conclusion in search of support, not empirical research," lacking robust empirical backing for its consistent claim of GDP overestimation.
LiveMint · Vidhu Shekhar · May 7, 2026 at 8:30 AM